As of 12/12/2024 NY Market close, liquidity is slightly down into 12/17 followed by a significant rise into 12/19. We will see if the sudden rise in liquidity in a couple trading days translates to upward pressures on the market. Overall, it should be supportive of the markets.
Since the last roadmap, $SPY rallied to the ATH zone I had laid out and rejected to the cent, and retraced down a bit today. The portfolio has gained a lot of value since the last roadmap as many tech names have rallied since the lows a couple days ago (where we did buying). Today, I did a bit more accumulation on the drop into small caps as I build back my small cap exposure. Semis are also making some progress but IMO have a long way up to go. My CPI prediction was correct as we saw both headline and core CPI come in right at expectation. We saw shelter cooling for the first time. Today, we did see a hotter PPI but jobless claims were above expectations. Based off this data, I believe the Fed will be doing another 25 bps cut at the next meeting. As we enter this lower rate environment, I expect small caps to begin playing catchup. I also expect tech to continue to perform well. My stance remains bullish as we continue to consolidate near these newer ATH levels. Liquidity is being accumulated for the next move up IMO. My next target is still 6200 $SPX. I expect end of year flows to contribute to this next leg higher. Buy all dips. $SPY floor remains $580.
I still stick to my green path which leads to $6200+ $ES. We are seeing a high level consolidation where many names are being accumulated for a large move up IMO.
$NDX: Following the script perfectly still. We hit my initial 21.75k target. We are now cooling off but I don’t think this time the cool off lasts too long. 22k will come quick once we get the next daily close above 21.75k. I believe this is the time to be accumulating semis and even adding to your big tech positions if your positions aren’t large.. as you know mine already are.
$SPX is still resting on its 9/21 daily EMAs. It is continuing to get accumulated and the leg up to $6200 is incoming IMO. Trend and structure still remain bullish.
Seasonality still remains very bullish into year end
We do see $BPSPX has deteriorated as small caps have not participated as much as tech recently and have shown relative weakness. For this reason, I have began accumulating $IWM exposure again as I believe they will play catch up on the next leg higher (and $BPSPX will correct up in parallel).
Credit: tradebeacon.io
The weekly view also remains in a strong bullish trend. Price is consolidating. Nothing bearish here yet, either.
From a zone standpoint, $SPY is continuing to obey close by zones very well. It is sitting between the 608.47-609.06 resistance zone and the 602.17-602.55 support zone. Below the current support there is also support around the 601 area. This consolidation between zones is only solidifying the support levels below and building liquidity for an imminent blast higher. This is a time to be accumulating discounted stock IMO. Buy all dips.
Commodities
GOLD
We had taken profit near the highs for our gold longs. Since then, we began accumulating gold longs again today via $UGL and $GLD leaps. I am bullish on gold into spring of 2025. I expect new highs. I have also began a position in $GDX because I believe miners will rise up along with gold as well.
OIL
No position. I do remain bullish on oil and energy in general. I continue to hold onto my $XLE leaps and leveraged shares. I will continue to add to this position.
Intra-day Trade Recaps/Analysis
668-110 since I began alerting scalps again. Live analysis sent in discord.